Peak Oil: Turning Point for Civilisation.
A letter to 'The Weekly Worker' January 8th 2009.

Whether the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be resolved by a single or two-state solution, Jack Conrad’s reply to Tony Greenstein that the latter “clutches at the dim and distant prospect of the oil running out” for imperialism to lose interest in the region and drop its support for Israel, is a misreading of the conflict in the Middle East and the situation the world faces in general (Weekly Worker, December 18^th 2008).

That Jack regards oil running out as a “dim and distant prospect” may suggest a degree of unfamiliarity with the unfolding energy crisis which the world is now entering. The subject of when oil will run out is a long-standing debate, usually referred to as ‘peak oil’, which has been rumbling on behind the back of the Marxist movement and the public for many years, although the leading circles of bourgeois society are well aware of the real situation.

The present ‘official’ view posted by the International Energy Agency is that conventional oil production will peak by 2020 - that is, 12 years from now - which can hardly be described as the dim and distant future. The IEA frequently changes its positions, so their new position cannot be relied on. Peak oil may be nearer, although to admit this would serve to undermine the stock markets. Some commentators believe that the world has already reached its maximum production of conventional oil, which is what peak oil refers to. According to scientists at the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, global oil production will peak by 2011, followed by a steep decline. According to LF Ivanhoe, in King Hubbert updated, the critical date for peak oil falls between 2000-2010, and he points out that “this foreseeable energy crisis will affect everyone on earth”.

Importantly, the IEA date for the peak is rejected by the experts, the followers of Marion King Hubbert, the man who first developed peak oil theory, and in 1956 was derided when he predicted that US oil production in the lower 48 states would peak by 1970 at the latest and then go into irreversible decline. In 1970 when US oil production peaked, his critics were forced to eat humble pie.

In oil industry circles Hubbert became famous for his accurate prediction of when American oil production would peak and decline, but he also used his method to predict the global oil production peak, based on the data that was available to him, suggesting a world peak between 1995 and 2000, or the early years in the new century. In fact, without the recessions in the 1970s and 1980s, which cut oil demand, Hubbert again would probably have scored another hit. Since Hubbert gave two dates for a peak, the later for the early years of the new century, he is still on course for vindication. Yet again, the present recession, reducing demand for oil, would delay or conceal the peak.

What is certain, if we base ourselves on Hubbert’s calculations, is that the world has entered the period of peak oil production. His followers in the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (and Gas) ASPO, headed by Colin Campbell, say that they have refined his method of predicting the global oil peak and that the new data available places the peak between 2000 and 2010. The fact that this is still within Hubbert’s time period raises the question of what improvement they have made in Hubbert’s method, particularly since the peak suggested by Hubbert was delayed by the previous recessions. Campbell, a rather conservative person, sees a period of great tension during the energy transition, and in Oil crisis, he writes that “It is not so much that the decline of oil itself will bring everything to a standstill, but rather the perception of looming long-term decline will undermine the foundations of the financial-industry system that depended on perpetual growth for its survival” (p186).

Mathew Simmons, energy investment banker, advisor to the former president, George Bush junior, and author of Twilight In The Desert, an important book based on a critical study of 200 technical papers written by experts on the state of the Saudi fields, says we will only know when global oil production peaked when we look in our rear view mirror: that is, after the event. Importantly Simmons supports Peak Oil theory and agues that if the Saudi oil fields have not yet peaked, they are close to doing so. He argues that the peaking of Saudi oil production will signal the worldwide peak. Simmons regularly travels the world giving lectures on the danger to civilisation represented by oil depletion.

Peak oil production comes when we have extracted about half the oil in any field, country or globally. This means that we have extracted about one trillion of the two trillion barrels of conventional oil, which petroleum geologists, who have worked for the oil companies, estimate to be the world’s endowment. Whether the global maximum production of oil takes the form of a peak - ie, the bell-shaped curve - or a plateau, after this period oil production will begin its inevitable decline with far-reaching consequences for all societies.

In an oil-dependent world, this will be an historic turning point for modem industrial civilisation. The fear of peak oil has already led to the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan by the imperialists and threats against Iran, which contains the world second largest oil fields. In other words, peak oil is increasingly driving world political developments.

At the time of writing, most people on the left are unaware of the peak oil issue and its implications. This lack of awareness at present can be easily confirmed by studying the various programmes of the political groups. Socialism is certainly needed and, I would argue, is the best way for alleviating the approaching energy crisis. However, getting rid of capitalism will not replenish the oil fields. Also, if the left were to take power before the oil crisis strikes, it would be easier for reactionaries to blame the ensuing hardship on their regime.

When the left put forward their various programmes and fail to address the issue of the approaching peak in global oil production and its social consequences for a world where industrial production, agriculture and transportation are petroleum-dependent, it means that these programmes are irrelevant to the situation we could soon be facing in a few years time. Furthermore, some people on the left need to appreciate that old-style petroleum-driven socialism cannot serve as a model for the future. Socialism has to be rethought along new, sustainable, ecological lines.

Tony Clark

December 26, 2008.